In August, Litecoin (LTC) saw its latest block reward reduction — dubbed a “halving” or a “halvening”. While countless analysts were expecting for the cryptocurrency to surge in the wake of the inflation reduction, it didn’t.
In fact, Litecoin plunged, falling from a three-digit price point to a two-digit price point. As of the time of writing this, the cryptocurrency, the fifth largest by market capitalization, is trading for $64, some 40% lower than the date of the halving. Against Bitcoin, LTC has also taken a plunge, falling by 40%.
Also, the security of the network has collapsed, falling from 480 terahashes per second to 310 terahashes per second as of the time of writing this.
The price collapse directly contradicted popular sentiment, which stated that a reduction in Litecoin’s inflation would lead to an increase in upward price momentum, simply due to simple supply-demand economics.
Bad Precedent For Bitcoin?
According to trader Anondran, the LTC price collapse after the halving “is the best leading indicator for what [Bitcoin will do after the halving] next year. Considering the outlook didn’t look good for LTC after the halving, I’d expect the same to happen for Bitcoin”.
What Anondran is implying that prior to the halving, Bitcoin will rally by hundreds of percent, presumably to establish an all-time high. Then, following the block reward reduction, BTC will sink, as will the security of the network.
$LTC halving recently is the best leading indicator for what Bitcoin halving is gonna do next year.
Considering the outlook didnt look good for litecoin after the halving I'd expect the same to happen for Bitcoin.
— Anondran (@anondran) September 5, 2019
From an outsider’s perspective, this makes sense. Many consumers equate Bitcoin and Litecoin to each other, considering their similar names, logos, and brand recognition, so it may make sense for them to assume their price action will be identical.
But a model from PlanB shows that this is not the case. A model from the Twitter analyst shows that Bitcoin’s and Litecoin’s movements are distinct.
PlanB’s model predicts that the stock-to-flow (SF) ratio, which is an asset’s “above-ground” supply to its yearly inflation rate, of certain commodities, namely gold, silver, and Bitcoin, can predict their market capitalization. Bitcoin, over its ten-year history, has followed the model for years now, having an R2 of over 95%. It predicts that after the next halving, BTC’s fair value will reach $55,000.
However, Litecoin’s relation to the SF model is a mere 25%, implying that halvings have no substantial, long-term effect on the price of LTC. Bitcoin, on the other hand, should appreciate in the long term due to the halvings.
Some people think that because litecoin didn't jump on ltc halving, btc halving will also be irrelevant for #bitcoin. That logic is flawed. LTC price doesn't have a significant relationship with stock to flow, so halvings are indeed irrelevant. BTC price-s2f relation is strong 🚀 https://t.co/5Wx7vHLvUd
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 31, 2019
‘I Think XRP Is a Scam’ Says Ben Askren Former UFC Star And Bitcoin Advocate
As regulatory concerns over XRP — the world’s third-biggest crypto asset — have intensified, some celebrities are stepping in to voice more FUD about the coin. Ben Askren, former UFC fighter and known Bitcoin (BTC) bull, has driven more scepticism toward XRP with a short tweet on Jan. 28: “I think XRP is a scam.”
Askren’s latest cryptocurrency verdict builds on a background of previous endorsements of other cryptocurrencies. The famous former Olympic wrestler is not only bullish on Bitcoin, but also supports Charlie Lee-founded Litecoin (LTC), the seventh biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of press time. In January 2019, Askren was purportedly sponsored by the Litecoin Foundation as the mixed martial arts fighter for UFC 235 event. Subsequently, the UFC fighter appeared on his Instagram wearing a Litecoin-branded t-shirt. The celebrity has also promoted Bitcoin on his Twitter in October 2019:
“Just bought more BTC using @eToro was really easy, now all of you twitter geniuses can tell me Crypto is a scam while my assets go up!”
As Askren has been known as a shill for BTC and LTC for a while, a user on Twitter asked him a question: “The fact @Benaskren is staying quiet on XRP tells me its going to take it a long time if ever to moon.” Askren’s verdict didn’t take long, and a part of the crypto community on Twitter expressed some negative stance toward XRP, while the tweet has amassed over 2,000 likes as of press time.
Askren’s statement about XRP comes amid an already worsened situation around the coin as XRP dropped over 40% from $0.364 in 2019 to $0.183 in December, marking a two-year low. The situation has been exacerbated by rising concerns over the unclear regulatory status of XRP’s issuing company, Ripple, which faces a class-action lawsuit alleging that it held an unregistered sale of securities. Despite all this, CEO Brad Garlinghouse has recently hinted at an initial public offering for Ripple, which undoubtedly has some implications for the fate of altcoin. At press time, XRP is trading at $0.238, up over 1% over the past 24 hours, following a major green trend on crypto markets.
Litecoin Foundation Warns Fake 100,000 LTC Giveaway Scam Spreading on YouTube
The project director of the Litecoin Foundation is warning the crypto-curious about an apparent scam on YouTube.
David Schwartz says a YouTube channel posing as the Foundation recently broadcast a video of the 2019 Litecoin Summit, pretending it was happening live.
The description of the video falsely states that the Litecoin Foundation is now giving away 100,000 LTC.
There is a fake Litecoin Foundation youtube channel scamming people out of their #LTC as we speak.
DO NOT believe the channel and what it is offering! This is NOT the official Foundation youtube channel.
— David Schwartz (aka – Dasch) (@DaddyCool1991) December 23, 2019
The video deploys a classic crypto scam, claiming that anyone who sends LTC to a certain address will receive a larger amount of LTC in return.
It’s the latest reminder that the vast majority of crypto giveaways are likely scams – especially those that ask people to send crypto to an address.
Similar schemes are trying to trick Ripple and XRP supporters, with many people in the community posting alerts via Twitter.
🚨🚨🚨NEW SCAM ALERT🚨🚨🚨
These tweets will lead you to a webpage or youtube, trick you to send them XRP, and convince you on getting back double or more XRP in return!!!#XRPCommunity! NEVER NEVER SEND YOUR XRP TO THESE SCAMMERS! THIS IS NOTHING BUT A SCAM! pic.twitter.com/S3bsXhcBmE
— 🐼PandaRippleXRP🐼 (@RipplePandaXRP) December 17, 2019
Coinbase Could Be Holding a Quarter of All Litecoin
The quest for decentralization in the cryptocurrency space is a noble but convoluted pursuit. So, when a suggestion arises that one of the world’s most prominent exchanges, Coinbase, is holding as much as 25% of all Litecoin, questions start to be asked.
Coinbase is regarded as one of the biggest, and most influential, cryptocurrency businesses in the world. It has made it to the Forbes Blockchain 50 list, and it has its infamous ‘Coinbase effect’ that sees coins pump when added to the exchange. But does this exchange pack enough power to influence a coin like Litecoin?
Can Coinbase Be That in Control?
It was suggested on Twitter by @TruthRaiderHQ that Coinbase holds 25% of all Litecoin and even a substantial 5% of Bitcoin.
Coinbase holds 25% of all litecoin and 5% of all bitcoin.
— ₿ TruthRaider (@TruthRaiderHQ) December 2, 2019
This was followed up by a stab at John Kim, who brands himself as an ‘LTC evangelist.’ The suggestion being that if one company does hold as much as 25% of one coin that promotes itself as decentralized, then the level of its decentralization deserves to be questioned.
If you listen to the fanboy john Kim, who parades around like a cheerleader from high school, you'd miss the fact that litecoin is centralized af.
25%-30% + of this shitcoin is owned by one company.
— ₿ TruthRaider (@TruthRaiderHQ) December 2, 2019
The scope of Coinbase’s prominence in the cryptocurrency space is tough to determine, as is its full record of coins held under custody. However, the similarities to the cryptocurrency exchange and a major bank are quite apparent.
Coinbase is a centralized exchange, a breed of exchanges that dominate the market, and are a necessary go-between for fiat and crypto. But also a type of exchange that operates, in many ways, like a traditional bank.
Does This Make Litecoin Centralized?
Coinbase has over $7 billion of BTC under custody, which equates to 966,230 Bitcoin. If this is the case, and the circulating supply is 18 million – or perhaps closer to 17 million because of lost coins – then it would appear that Coinbase does hold even more than 5% of Bitcoin.
If it is the case that 25% of all Litecoin is sitting under custody with Coinbase, that is a substantial chunk that is not as distributed as fans of the coin would like or even expect. Coinbase isn’t likely to do anything with that much sway in the Litecoin sector, but it does warrant questions of its distribution.
However, what does become concerning is that following its mining reward halving earlier this year, the hash rate for Litecoin has been falling, which does make it more susceptible to a 51-percent-attack. Its hash rate is now the same as it was a year ago.
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