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Litecoin Crash After Halving Sets Bad Precedent for Bitcoin

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Litecoin Crash After Halving Sets Bad Precedent for Bitcoin
Litecoin Crash After Halving Sets Bad Precedent for Bitcoin

In August, Litecoin (LTC) saw its latest block reward reduction — dubbed a “halving” or a “halvening”. While countless analysts were expecting for the cryptocurrency to surge in the wake of the inflation reduction, it didn’t.

In fact, Litecoin plunged, falling from a three-digit price point to a two-digit price point. As of the time of writing this, the cryptocurrency, the fifth largest by market capitalization, is trading for $64, some 40% lower than the date of the halving. Against Bitcoin, LTC has also taken a plunge, falling by 40%.

Also, the security of the network has collapsed, falling from 480 terahashes per second to 310 terahashes per second as of the time of writing this.

The price collapse directly contradicted popular sentiment, which stated that a reduction in Litecoin’s inflation would lead to an increase in upward price momentum, simply due to simple supply-demand economics.

Bad Precedent For Bitcoin?

According to trader Anondran, the LTC price collapse after the halving “is the best leading indicator for what [Bitcoin will do after the halving] next year. Considering the outlook didn’t look good for LTC after the halving, I’d expect the same to happen for Bitcoin”.

What Anondran is implying that prior to the halving, Bitcoin will rally by hundreds of percent, presumably to establish an all-time high. Then, following the block reward reduction, BTC will sink, as will the security of the network.

From an outsider’s perspective, this makes sense. Many consumers equate Bitcoin and Litecoin to each other, considering their similar names, logos, and brand recognition, so it may make sense for them to assume their price action will be identical.

But a model from PlanB shows that this is not the case. A model from the Twitter analyst shows that Bitcoin’s and Litecoin’s movements are distinct.

PlanB’s model predicts that the stock-to-flow (SF) ratio, which is an asset’s “above-ground” supply to its yearly inflation rate, of certain commodities, namely gold, silver, and Bitcoin, can predict their market capitalization. Bitcoin, over its ten-year history, has followed the model for years now, having an R2 of over 95%. It predicts that after the next halving, BTC’s fair value will reach $55,000.

However, Litecoin’s relation to the SF model is a mere 25%, implying that halvings have no substantial, long-term effect on the price of LTC. Bitcoin, on the other hand, should appreciate in the long term due to the halvings.

 

Bitcoin News

Litecoin’s hashrate, difficulty close to early-2018 lows

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Litecoin’s hashrate, difficulty close to early-2018 lows

CoinMetrics recently released the 25th issue of its weekly State of the Network series, a report that analyzes network data to produce insights into the cryptocurrency space. The report stated that while XRP’s daily average transaction value surged past ETH last week, XRP and BCH’s transfer values dropped significantly this time around.

The report also observed that Litecoin‘s adjusted transfer value had shot up by over 89%. However, its low transfers and transaction count signified that a relatively small number of addresses had been moving large amounts of Litecoin.

BTC daily fees were reported to have increased by 10% for the second week in a row, as Bitcoin continued to climb ahead of ETH in that regard, with BTC averaging $346,900 compared to ETH’s $91,800. Additionally, XRP fees were reported to have grown by over 100% over the last week.

The report further found that both the Litecoin hash rate and difficulty have been in free-fall since July, and are now on the verge of reaching lows not seen since early-2018. Bitcoin’s difficulty was also reported to have been adjusted downward on 7 November, since the reported drop in hash rate last week.

Among large-capitalization assets, Stellar was reported to have recorded the largest gains over the past week, gaining 19% after the Stellar Development Foundation effectively burned 55 million tokens by sending them to an account that cannot sign transactions. Among smaller capitalization assets, Cosmos showed a 24% increase without the appearance of any specific catalyst, while Tezos gained by 41% after Coinbase announced that it would be offering staking rewards on the platform.

CoinMetrics also reported that short-term measures of correlation earlier this year between Bitcoin and gold returns had reached one of the highest levels in history.

Additionally, CoinMetrics claimed that gold’s recent large sell-off and negative 30-day correlation with Bitcoin suggests that the digital asset’s reaction function to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments is complex and inconsistent.

The CM Bletchley Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices were also reported to have outperformed the larger cap indices, largely due to the performance of Tezos, which made up 10% of the index. Also, since Bitcoin is a major component of both the Bletchley 10 and Bletchley Total indices, their performance relies heavily on returns of Bitcoin over the period, which was reported to be one of the weaker performing large-cap assets of the week.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $8,822 on the cryptocurrency charts, having recorded an insignificant growth of 0.34% over the past 24 hours.

Source: Coinstats

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Litecoin News

Litecoin Foundation Working On Improvements To The Platform

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Litecoin Foundation Working On Improvements To The Platform
Litecoin Foundation Working On Improvements To The Platform

The Litecoin Foundation has published two new draft Litecoin Improvement Proposals that work toward establishing privacy features for the network. On Oct. 22, the Foundation shared links to details of the draft proposals on GitHub: LIP-0002 EB and LIP-0003 MW.

As the Foundation outlines, both proposals are targeted at mitigating the privacy risks associated with a transparent ledger, where transaction history can be publicly traced. The proposal’s authors — Andrew Yang, David Burkett and Charlie Lee — argue that this transparency hinders Litecoin’s “functional fungibility in a government-regulated merchant world,” observing that:

“Personal identifiable information collected from IP address, exchanges, or merchants can be leaked then tied to your addresses. Also services, such as chain analysis, provide risk-scores based on whether or not any addresses that they have blacklisted appear in its transactional history. This results in some businesses treating these coins as ‘tainted’ and then sending them back to the owner, or worse yet, shutting down their account.”

To solve this, the Foundation is working on the integration of the scalability– and privacy-focused Mimblewimble protocol — named after a fictional tongue-tying curse from the popular Harry Potter novels. Mimblewimble is in part a variant of the cryptographic protocol known as Confidential Transactions, which allows for transactions to be obfuscated yet verifiable so as to achieve both heightened privacy and the prevention of double-spending.

For these specific proposals, the authors envision implementing MimbleWimble as an opt-in new transaction format through “extension blocks” (EBs). These EBs run alongside main chain canonical blocks, at the same interval of 2.5 minutes on average. The documents outline the functioning of this opt-in integration and the effects it has for transaction privacy, and exactly how the proposals tackle the interaction between coins in the EBs and the canonical blockchain. As previously reported, the privacy-centric cryptocurrency Grin (GRIN) underwent its first network hard-fork this summer to introduce tweaks to its consensus algorithm in order to achieve greater resistance to ASIC miners.

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Litecoin News

Litecoin Celebrates Eighth Birthday With Total Transactions Reaching $500 Billion Mark

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litecoins birthday

According to a post from the Litecoin Foundation, it was in October 2011 when the first block was mined on the Litecoin network with the message:

“@NY Times 05/Oct/2011 Steve Jobs, Apple’s Visionary, Dies at 56”

Subsequently, another couple of blocks were mined for genesis block validation and ensuring the proper functioning of the network. After the confirmation, Charlie Lee, the creator of Litecoin, asked users through the Bitcointalk forum as to when it should be launched for ensuring input from the community.

The time decided was at 03:00 GMT on Thursday, October 13th. Even though there wasn’t much interest from users initially, with time more and more people went on to adopt the cryptocurrency and it saw growth alongside Bitcoin itself making headlines – partly due to the use of the coin in the darknet markets such as Silk Road.

According to CryptoCompare data, Litecoin now maintains a $3.59 billion market cap and has become a top traded cryptocurrency in terms of the trading volume. According to Charlie Lee, $500 billion worth of transactions has been made using the Litecoin network until now.

But Litecoin is not without its detractors. Those who consider it a Bitcoin copy have heavily criticized it citing that it would only distract users from Bitcoin.

There are others who consider Litecoin a testnet for BTC. It acted in that capacity during the implementation of Segregated Witness, as it was adopted by the Litecoin network before Bitcoin, and it still has higher usage on the network. As per the figures from last month, the use of SegWit on LTC has grown over 75%. The ATH for SegWit usage on the BTC network has just reached close to 60%.

Litecoin has seen some of the wildest price fluctuations in the past as well. During the last few years, there have been severe fluctuations with LTC hitting a new ATH of almost $400 in December 2017. It started at only $4 that year.

After that, in December the following year, the price crashed to $22, and it has seen recovery ever since. At the moment, the Litecoin trading price is $57.

According to recent reports, the Litecoin Foundation is currently facing depleted reserves, but Lee has said himself that there’s enough to last for a couple of years.

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